When War Becomes a Public Health Crisis: The Global Health Consequences of the Conflict in Iran
On 28 February 2026, US and Israeli forces launched Operation Epic Fury — nearly 900 airstrikes in the first twelve hours targeting Iranian military infrastructure and leadership, often involving civilian areas. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed. Iran retaliated with waves of missiles and drones across the region. Within days, the world had not merely a geopolitical crisis, it had a public health emergency. And as is so often the case in times of conflict, the costs are not shared equally.
Direct Casualties and the Collapse of Healthcare in the Region
The immediate toll has been steep. According to the World Health Organization, by 11 March Iranian national health authorities had reported more than 1,300 deaths and over 9,000 injuries since the start of the conflict, with Lebanon reporting at least 570 deaths and more than 1,400 injuries. Healthcare workers have not been spared: WHO verified 18 attacks on health facilities in Iran within the first two weeks, resulting in 8 health worker deaths. In Lebanon, 49 primary healthcare centres and five hospitals have closed following military evacuation orders, and, recently, 11 healthcare workers were killed when a medical centre in Southern Lebanon was hit in an Israeli attack [1].
Each destroyed clinic represents patients with diabetes unable to collect insulin, mothers unable to access antenatal care, trauma victims dying before reaching a surgical team. The WHO’s Regional Director, Dr Hanan Balkhy, has made clear that 16 countries are now affected by the expanding crisis — and that the disruption reaches far beyond the battlefield [2].
The Dubai Bottleneck: When Global Aid Grinds to a Halt
One of the conflict’s most consequential and least-visible health impacts concerns a logistics hub in Dubai. The International Humanitarian City (IHC) in Dubai is the world’s premier disaster relief logistics centre. Last year it fulfilled over 500 emergency health orders for 75 countries across all six WHO regions [2]. On 1 March, Dubai’s Jebel Ali port - the largest container terminal in the Middle East - caught fire after debris from an intercepted Iranian missile struck it. Operations at the IHC were temporarily suspended.
The result was that $18 million in humanitarian health supplies became inaccessible, with a further $8 million in shipments unable to reach the hub at all [2]. The UN’s World Food Programme warned that shipping containers now face a $3,000 emergency surcharge, driving up the cost of life-saving operations in countries entirely uninvolved in the conflict including Sudan, Myanmar and Afghanistan [3]. The war in Iran is creating rationing of medicines thousands of miles away.
The Strait of Hormuz: A Chokepoint for Health as Well as Oil
The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly one-fifth of global petroleum and more than a quarter of global seaborne oil trade. Iran’s closure of the strait has sent oil prices surging — at one point above $120 a barrel, the highest since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine [4]. For wealthier nations, this means increasing petrol prices and rising energy bills. For low- and middle-income countries, it means something far more serious.
The Strait is also a major chokepoint for fertiliser exports. Around 20–30% of global fertiliser, including urea and ammonia nitrate, transits through the Hormuz strait [5]. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Oman together supply a large share of the world’s traded fertilisers. A blockade during key planting seasons risks devastating crop yields in countries already facing food insecurity. In addition, the UN’s International Monetary Fund has stated that every 10% increase in energy prices adds almost half a percentage point to global inflation [6] - inflation that translates directly into hunger in the world’s poorest communities.
Analysts have identified Sub-Saharan Africa as the most vulnerable region. Farmers there are heavily dependent on imported fertiliser and households spend a disproportionate share of income on food. The war’s fertiliser shock threatens both harvests and prices [7].
A Polycrisis for the World’s Most Vulnerable
The Council on Foreign Relations has described the compound effects of the conflict as a “polycrisis”: logistics gridlock, dollar appreciation, fertiliser shortages, and oil shocks converging to push the food insecure toward emergency, and those in emergency toward famine [3]. Before the conflict began, the Middle East and surrounding region was already home to 25 million displaced people [3]. That number is rising rapidly.
The conflict’s health consequences for Afghan immigrants inside Iran deserve particular attention. Iran hosts millions of Afghan migrants, documented and undocumented, who have been exposed to military strikes, economic collapse, and accelerating deportations since hostilities began. As the Lancet noted in its analysis of the conflict’s health implications, this is compounding an already fragile humanitarian situation for women and children in Afghanistan, threatening further destabilisation and cascading displacement across the region [8].
The World Food Programme, already severely weakened after losing 40% of its funding last year and shedding 6,000 staff, has warned that rising fuel and operating costs from the conflict threaten its capacity to reach children facing severe malnutrition [9].
What This Means for the UK
Britain has sought to distance itself from offensive operations, with Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer confirming the UK will not participate in direct strikes against Iran, though limited defensive support continues [10]. But geopolitical neutrality offers no immunity from health consequences.
The UK imports roughly 40% of its oil and 60% of its gas, and although much comes from Norway rather than the Gulf, the conflict’s effects on global energy markets are already feeding through. In rural communities dependent on heating oil, Labour MPs in the Rural Research Group have reported elderly and vulnerable constituents being told their confirmed deliveries have been cancelled and re-priced - a situation one MP described as becoming “a public health issue” [11].
Food prices are also under pressure. Around 35% of key fertilisers, including urea and ammonia nitrate, come through the Strait of Hormuz [5]. British farmers are warning of severe inflationary pressures passing through the supply chain to the retail shelf. Trade experts have cautioned that food prices could rise within weeks, and the “big worry,” as one logistics specialist put it, is that they will not come back down [12].
The NHS is also vulnerable. Already affected by fragile supply chains - pharmacies reported significant difficulties sourcing even aspirin in the weeks before the conflict [13] - the disruption to global logistics adds new pressure. The Centre for Long-Term Resilience has flagged the UK’s dependence on supply chains for antibiotics, vaccines, and diagnostic equipment as “highly brittle and vulnerable” [13].
Inequality Is Not Incidental — It Is the Architecture
The health consequences of this conflict are not randomly distributed. They follow the existing architecture of global inequality. Wealthy Gulf states can fly food in by alternative routes. The United States is a net energy exporter and will benefit marginally from higher oil prices. European economies face a slowdown.
Low-income countries face famine.
In the UK, the cost of living crisis that the Iran conflict is now deepening falls most heavily on those who were already struggling. Food inflation is a regressive tax. Heating oil price spikes harm rural communities with fewer alternative energy sources. NHS supply chain fragility was already disproportionately affecting communities with least access to private healthcare alternatives.
The Lancet’s analysis of Iran’s health system noted that decades of sanctions, another form of structural violence, had already been linked to higher mortality from non-communicable diseases before a single bomb fell [8]. War does not create health inequality per se, but it amplifies it.
Conclusion
The conflict in Iran is, among other things, a public health emergency, one whose effects are radiating far beyond the Middle East. The immediate casualties are staggering. The humanitarian supply chain disruption is global. The food and energy price shocks threaten the most vulnerable communities on earth. And in the UK, a war in which we are not combatants is already threatening the food security and health of those who can least afford another crisis.
For healthcare workers, understanding these connections, between geopolitics, supply chains, food systems, and health, is not peripheral to clinical practice. It is essential to it.
It would have been better for all our sakes, except for the few already disproportionately rich who will profit financially, if this war had not started.
References
1. World Health Organization. Conflict deepens health crisis across Middle East, WHO says. 11 March 2026.
2. World Health Organization. Health impact of the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. 5 March 2026.
3. Vigersky S. The Iran War Is Breaking Global Humanitarian Aid Efforts. Council on Foreign Relations, 12 March 2026.
4. AP / Washington Times. Analysis: Iran war becomes a contest of who can take the most pain. 11 March 2026.
5. ITV News. Food prices, energy bills, mortgages and pensions: What is the broader impact of the Iran war? 9 March 2026.
6. CFR Global Conflict Tracker. Iran’s War With Israel and the United States. March 2026.
7. CNBC. A global food price shock looms as Middle East war rages on. Here’s who will be hit hardest. 12 March 2026.
8. Lankarani KB et al. Iran and beyond: perilous threats to population health. The Lancet. August 2025.
9. The National. Iran war will raise cost of food and hit struggling humanitarian groups, WFP warns. 10 March 2026.
10. Distilled Post. Britain Drawn into Conflict with Iran? The Risks and Impact on the NHS. March 2026.
11. LabourList. Think tanks and MPs call for targeted response as Iran war impacts cost of living. 13 March 2026.
12. Yahoo Finance / Logistics UK. Food prices could rise within weeks — but the ‘big worry’ is that they won’t come back down. March 2026.
13. The Week. NHS vulnerable to ‘fragile’ supply chains. 23 February 2026.